Infographic

UPDATE:  June 25th, 2012

The Infographic below is the first version, from before we had anything from Zimmerman apart from some leaks. This had the truck parked further from the bend, as Frank Taaffe related that Zimmerman had indicated that position to him.
Leaks had indicated that Zimmerman had actually gone to a house in Retreat View Circle to get a number (at which to met the incoming patrol).

Now, we have Zimmerman saying that:
  1. The call ended at the Retreat View Circle end of the path
  2. He did not get a house number, although that was the purpose of going there.
  3. He decided to go back to meet up at the truck - and told the Dispatcher that he was doing that.
  4. He started walking back as the call ended.
His problem is that in the last moments of the call, the One True Witness says:
Actually could you have them, could you have them call me and I'll tell them where I'm at?
He did not intend to go back to the truck.
It will be 2 minutes and 30 seconds before the first 911 call connects.
It would take 20 seconds to walk to the T-junction, at most another 2 seconds to get to where he says the confrontation started.
- That's according to theory - based on an average human walking speed.
- That's according to practice - based on observing him doing that walk in the Walk-Through.

He would arrive at the confrontation start position 2 minutes and 8 seconds before the first 911 call connects.

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The above is a single image. Click it for the original image file.

    12 comments:

    1. Hello M. Trebuchet Bravo for your extensive works.

      I am not sure were to put my comment. Anyhow it goes like this. The way GZ ended his call and the timeline are, as you mentioned, big big elephants. Many of us agree that his explication why he had been on Retreat View Circle (RVC) is bullshit. We got to have in mind GZ was convinced TM was a stranger flying out of the gated community.

      911 dispatcher: He’s running? Which way is he running?
      Zimmerman:Down toward the other entrance of the neighborhood. [2:14]

      This is why he went on RVC. For sure he was expecting TM to show up somewhere on RVC. He probably went south on the RVC down to the other entrance. No sign of TM. He might then continued his way down to south entrance of the back alley. TM would had been (according to DeeDee) close to his house, maybe a little north. DeeDee said GZ appeared from behind (from south?) The TM would had tried to escape toward north until GZ reached him. This is also in accordance with the position of the TM cell and his body. It is also matching quite good the timeline.

      The big question with this scenario (and almost every scenario) is why TM didn't get in his house? Was the back door locked?

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    2. Everything after Zimmerman ended his call to them seen on the ground outside John's is speculation.
      We don't even know that Zimmerman actually went to RVC. He might have - to do as you suggest.

      Perhaps Martin relaxed once he though he lost the guy in the truck, but ducked into cover in a dark back porch just in case. He was concentrating on the girl and the call.

      If he thought there was a possibility of the following continuing, then heading home would not be a good idea. He would be leading a stalker towards a house with just a young boy in it.
      Better to hide and wait for the stalker to give up.

      No key was found on Martin. If the doors were locked, he would not be able to enter quickly.
      Sometimes, a young person in my house doesn't respond even if you bang on their bedroom door - nevermind the front or back door.


      All we can say for sure is that Zimmerman is clearly lying. He must have spent about 2 minutes searching for Martin.
      That is not the only part of his story that does not match timings and details from his NEN call.

      He can make up all sorts of stuff, but
      - he can't change the clock.
      - he can't change what he said in the call - or the times that he said things.

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    3. @Sling,
      I believe he did go to RVC to see if he could see Martin. If you check out his reenactment video listen and watch forward from @6:00 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VakGZgJxTi4&feature=related he says "I know if I went to RVC I could see.. But he catches himself and changes what he was about to say to I knew I could use their address. Your thoughts...

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      1. You are right. He said "So i still thought i c.. s.." He almost pronounced "could see".

        I have absolutely no doubt about it. GZ went to RVC with the unique goal of seeing TM crossing RVC toward the back entrance.

        He could be on RVC as soon as 19:12:10, 4 minutes before the first 911 call.

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      2. Yes. I'll put a mention into The Walk.

        I need to revise this Infographic to illustrate the extremes of possibility.

        The current single image is based on my original calculation from the NEN call. From timing and sounds, that had him jogging as far as the back corner of the first Twin Trees house and stopping/slowing there. Finishing his call no further than the T-junction.
        It's a long time to stop. 1 minute 25 seconds.
        A reason for the delay could be that he had reached a sort of milestone. He could look try to down the central path area and he had to concentrate on some details exchange with the dispatcher.

        Right at the end of the call, he changes from "meet at the truck" to "I will be somewhere else".
        He could have walked to RVC in order to look down towards the gate.
        Martin had been out of his sight for 2 minutes at this stage. If he thought that Martin had run for the back gate, he would be gone by now.
        However, his regret at speaking out his address shows that he was aware of the possibility that Martin could be close by. So he's keeping an eye out for any sign.
        The abrupt last minute change and the urgency indicated by his talking over the dispatchers words could indicate that he had heard or seen something - and intended to go looking.

        Just over two minutes later, they were face to face.



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    4. If I were NW and monitoring what I though was an intruder....
      I see them run (skip?) South "towards the back entrance"

      Plan.A
      Drive down to the where I could observe the back entrance.
      This would be in line with NW "observe from a safe place" instructions.

      Plan.B
      (IF I were reckless)
      Walk through to RVC, in the hope that the intruder had continued moving. Perhaps I would depend on a history of "They always get (run) away (between the houses)".
      The only reason for going East to RVC is to be able to look South down that stretch of RVC towards the back entrance.

      (Getting more reckless)
      I could then walk South towards the back entrance, looking for the intruder to emerge onto RVC either at one of the house gaps or right down at the back entrance.
      This is getting quite high risk. The intruder could emerge from my right at any of the gaps.
      Worse - if I think he was on the phone, he could have called up his fellow-Goons to come and help him. But then, they have always run away in the past.

      But now....
      If he was running for the back entrance, I would surely have seen him down there by now, so he must still be in the central path area.
      (Now getting stupidly reckless)
      I cut into the dark central path area through one of the gaps.
      I have no idea where the intruder is. I could come face to face with him suddenly.

      And..."he had his hand in his waistband"!
      What if he's got a weapon?
      F**king Goons!
      Ba*tard just walked right up to my truck and eyeballed me.
      I wish I had a weapon.
      No..Wait!!

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      Replies
      1. Love the bit; "I wish I had a weapon. No... Wait!!". Great analysis but I am not convinced GZ got as far as RVC. I think when he stopped running he was near the turn Trayvon had taken. He was scared but he remembered he had a weapon (possibly the click click clack although experts think not) and gun in hand turned the T and started to the look for Trayvon.

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    5. The infographic above dates back to before te release of Zimmerman's Walk-Through and interview videos.

      I had used the timing, narrative and sounds on the NEN call recording to estimate the speeds (and so the distances) travelled by both of them.

      I had Zimmerman getting out of the truck, initially walking, then jogging ( the noises that he says are just ambient wind).
      With those speeds, the time intervals had him ceasing the jogging just as he came into the central pathway area. This would be a completely natural place at which to slow down and take stock, peering down the dark pathway area and trying to get a flashlight to stay on.
      He might or might not have walked further.

      In the analysis and Infographic, I gave him the best chance possible for what was then understood to be his story.
      I had him ending the call at the corner short of the T-junction.
      By stunning coincidence. this is the exact spot where he says he was attacked.
      I then had him walk, not alone to RVC, but South to a house entrance and up to a front door (in case of short-sightedness).
      Crossing the road to a house opposite the path would have been shorter, but crossing roads can be dangerous. One could be jumped by a car.
      Then I had him walking back to his truck and getting jumped near the T-junction.

      So..
      Even giving him that wriggle room - of a walk from the T-junction to a RVC house door *after* ending the call - he still has 1 minute 19 seconds completely unexplained.

      Now that he says he ended the call at RVC and headed straight for his truck, that unexplained gap is over 2 minutes.

      For anyone looking at the automatically logged timestamps, there never has been any doubt but that he went searching for Martin.

      I'll make some time to add second infographic for his "ended at RVC" story.
      I'll keep the original one.
      Or.. I'll do a side-by-side - with the obviously much shorter and safer walk 100 feet North to a RVC house number indicated - as compared to the risky 250 foot walk he claims.

      Eventually, if he's forced to address the time gap, he will probably *remember* that he ended the call at the corner, and then went to RVC.
      He would still be left with a significant gap though.

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    6. You've done a good job with your analysis. Hopefully the State of FL with do an equally good job with theirs.

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    7. Mr Trebuchet. The prosecutors will have fairly good chances to convince the jury that GZ lies on some issues. But even so, the possibility TM went back and started the confrontation still exists. It will be DeeDee againt GZ words. Do you think that will be enough?

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      Replies
      1. I don't think it comes down to DeeDee v Zimmerman's words.

        What DeeDee adds is a general story of Martin being trailed by a guy in a truck.
        Her story indicates Martin stopping at the Mailboxes. This is in accordance with analysis of the NEN call and with FrankTaffe's hearsay. It contradicts detail in Zimmerman's Walk-through and interviews. It is not the greatest such contradiction.
        Her story indicates a conversation at the end.

        Zimmerman has more serious challenges
        - His NEN call v. his story later
        - His changing stories
        - Uncompromising timestamps
        - Extent of injuries
        - Lack of defensive.offensive injuries
        - Forensics
        - Near-zero credibility

        ( And it's Ms. to you :)

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    8. Let's pretend Z did head towards the top of the T towards the point where he'd seen Trayvon begin running and out of sight behind the houses. We know he ran somewhere during his NEN call. So, if he ran to the top of the paths that make up the T and couldn't see or hear Trayvon running off in the distance, he'd be forgiven for wondering if T was hiding. Maybe he did go right through to RVC, but it wasn't for an address - it would have been to see if Travon had got off the dark footpath and was back on the street.

      Maybe when he still didn't see Trayvon, he wondered if TM had doubled back, and it was as he was heading back to the T intersection that he heard Ttayvon's conversation with DD. That'd have been the point where Z decided he diidn't need the dispatcher anymore and fobbed him off with crap about meeting near his vehicle, or them maybe ringing him back when the police had arrived.

      This would then give Z enough time to have walked back to RVC, headed south to the first cut-through and placed himself ahead of Trayvon. Then, after making sure he was locked and loaded, he started heading up to where Trayvon had been hid in the shadows.

      I think I want to believe Trayvon never moved from his first hiding place because the thought of him making it home and not being let in by his brother, for whatever reason, is even more saddening.

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