Elephants

Elephants?


Yup!
This explanation from WikiPedia:
"Elephant in the room" is an English metaphorical idiom for an obvious truth that is being ignored or goes unaddressed. The idiomatic expression also applies to an obvious problem or risk no one wants to discuss.[1]
It is based on the idea that an elephant in a room would be impossible to overlook; thus, people in the room who pretend the elephant is not there have chosen to avoid dealing with the looming big issue.

 Elephant.1 - The 2 minute 30 second gap

The largest elephant for Zimmerman's case is the time-stamped recording of his own non-emergency call.
There are two simple steps in this
  1. The connection time of the call was automatically recorded as 19:09:34
    The call lasted 4 minutes and 7 seconds
    The call therefore ended at 19:13:41
  2. The first 911 connected at 19:16:11  - That is 2 minutes and 30 seconds after Zimmerman's call ended.
    Near the end of the call, Zimmerman had agreed to meet the incoming patrol car at his truck. In the last seconds, he interrupted the dispatcher to ask that the patrol car ring him on arrival to find out where he was.
When he ended the call, Zimmerman says he was at the end of the East-West path on Retreat View Circle.
That is about 250 feet from his truck. It would have taken him about 1 minute to walk to the truck.
He says that he started back to his truck immediately.
He says that Martin jumped him less than 30 seconds later.

Any reasonable person ( and any jury) would realise from Zimmerman's own words and the time gap of over 2 minutes that he intended to, and did indeed, go in search of Martin.
This is something that his supporters do not want to hear. I have put this point to a number of such supporters. I can confirm that we have an elephant here. None of them want to hear about this major discrepancy. If they admit this fact, it means that Zimmerman is not telling the truth.

It would take him 30 seconds maximum to walk from where he says he ended the NEN call to the position where he says he was attacked. The first 911 call connects 2 minutes 30 seconds after the NEN call ends.
What was he doing?
If he actually headed for the truck, it's 2 minutes between him arriving at the 'attack' point and the first 911.
There will obviously be a delay between Witness 11 hearing noises  and that 911 connecting. How many seconds of the 2 minutes still unexplained would be taken up with that?

How about 60 seconds (one whole minute) from W11 first hearing noises to the 911 connecting? It feels like a long time.
That would mean 1 minute of fighting in silence right outside her open porch door - followed by another minute of her hearing the noises, deciding to ring 911 and that call connecting.
The shot is heard 43 seconds into the call.

If Zimmerman actually headed back for the truck when he ended the NEN call, it means that
he was attacked 2 minutes and 42 seconds before he eventually shot.
That's 2 minutes and 42 seconds of being pinned on the ground, punched and head pounded.
ZOMG!!

A few hours later, here are his massive injuries from this vicious attack that lasted for nearly 3 minutes
Here is the extract from his own doctor's report the morning after:


That level of injury is not consistent even with 42 seconds of beating as described by Zimmerman - nevermind the additional time from start of the fight to the 911 connecting.
If we are to believe Zimmerman's account, these very minor injuries are the result of a vicious attack that lasted 2 minutes 42 seconds.

But... what about THE BLOOD!!!! Those other photos of BLOOD!! (before they wiped it off)
C'mon! I've seen a lot more of my own blood from a nose bleed or a small finger cut.
Why isn't his collar a mess?




Elephant.2 - Going for an address 

Zimmerman's exit from the truck coincides with "He's running". Listen to the NEN. You can hear him start to go for the door. It's simultaneous.
He says, however,  that the only reason he got out was to get an address.
He won't actually be asked for an address - "What address are you parked outside of?" until much later in the call.

OK. Let's accept for the sake of argument that he just wanted to get an address that he could direct the cops to. The NW captain can't remember the name of one of the 3 roads in the gated community. He can only remember the name of the road that circles the perimiter of the community.

He was at the rear of Retreat View Circle houses. He could have gone North through the gap and got the number of the RVC house that he was parked in back of. For some reason he takes the far longer journey East - which purely coincidentally takes him into the dark on the heels of what he describes as some threatening thug with confrontational body language and his hand in his waistband - and who had seconds before circled his truck in a menacing fashion. By Hannity interview, this very dangerous person hasn't run. He's simply skipped out of sight - and "not in fear". Zimmerman is headed straight into a very dark area where this dangerous thug who has just threatened him and is "not in fear" could be waiting at the first corner. That's insane.

He says he gets to the end of the path on RVC. Hooray. He's arrived at a place where he can see a house number on RVC. Job done. He's still on the NEN call and can give the address to the dispatcher.
This is why he got out of the truck. Yes?
Does he give the address? No.
The dispatcher seems frustrated with Zimmerman's attempts to tell him where he is. The dispatcher asks if Zimmerman lives in the area, and if so what that address is. The dispatcher suggests that Zimmerman meet the incoming patrol car at the clubhouse mailboxes. Rather than now giving a house number on RVC (that he can now see), Zimmerman agrees to meet at the mailboxes.
And then.....
Zimmerman suddenly changes and asks that the patrol call him on arrival to find out where he's at!!

Now boys and girls. Listen up!
The story so far:
Zimmerman can't tell where he is. He came to this part of RVC solely so he could get a house number on the only street name that he can remember.
He is now standing at the only position that he would be able to describe accurately to the dispatcher/cops. That is the only reason he came here.
The only logical thing to do it to stay exactly where he is until the cops arrive.
The reasonable thing to do is to give the address to the dispatcher so that there is no delay caused by the patrol ringing Zimmeman to ask him for an address.

But no. Zimmerman has clearly suddenly decided that he's not going to be at that address on RVC when the cops arrive. The whole point of going there was to get that address. Without that address, he can't tell anybody where he is.
He says he decided to go back to the truck.
He is still on the NEN call. He's just changed from an agreement to meet at the mailboxes ( a short distance beyond his truck). The logical thing to do is to tell the dispatcher that he is heading back. Does he do that? No.
Why?
Because he's going to be somewhere unknown as yet.
He wants the incoming patrol to ring him .... aaaaaaannnd..... he's going to tell them where he is.
No wait!!
He says he went to RVC because that was the only way he could describe where he was.

That sudden change of plan at he end of the NEN call indicates that he noticed something. The 2 minute 30 second gap before the 911 call connects indicates that he went to check it out. All of a sudden he wants the patrol to ring him as he's not sure where he's going to be when they ring.


If he actually was at the end of the path on RVC, why not give the dispatcher the address?
How did he think he could all of a sudden tell anyone where he was?
Isn't this "going for an address" story just some elephant poop made up after the fact to turn "following" into "going in the same direction"?




Elephant.3 - The Clubhouse CCTV (and Frank Taaffe)

The position of Zimmerman's truck, when he got out of it, has been a mystery. In his call, Zimmerman's directions place it somewhere in the East-West run of Twin Trees.
The precise position is of interest to anyone trying to reconstruct the movements of Zimmerman and Martin from the narrative in the call. The time intervals for the movements are fixed to the second from the call. It is possible to make reasonable estimates of distances covered at slow walk, fast walk and jogging in those intervals. Such distances are estimates only, but they do serve to put outer limits on distances travelled.
I began such an exercise in order to point out to someone that even if running, Zimmerman was still in Twin Trees when he said "OK" to "We don't need you to do that".

That simple exercise developed into the table of estimated distances that I used in the Maps page back in the days before the video of Zimmerman's Walk Through was released. I used the table to estimate a position for the truck by reference to distances from the T-junction.
Back then, the only indication we had of the truck position was Frank Taaffe's description - who said he got it from Zimmerman. He had the truck on the North side of Twin Trees and facing the clubhouse - meaning that Zimmerman would have driven in and made a U-turn to park and make his call.
It just so happened that the table of estimates that I had  developed worked wonderfully when put on a map for the position indicated by Taaffe. Martin approaching from the Clubhouse and walking past the truck - changing to a run - Zimmerman out of the truck - jogging (those 'wind' noises) until he gets to the pathway area and slowing naturally there.

But then, the Walk Through video is released and has Zimmerman first-hand giving a position for the first time (that I know of).
He says that he initiated the call while parked at the front of the clubhouse. He then drives into Twin Trees after Martin and parks - a little East of the position indicated by Taffe, but facing East away from the clubhouse.
This isn't a big deal as far as the distances for Zimmerman getting out of the truck are concerned. It is more of a big deal for Zimmerman's credibility, as the timed narrative and background noises of the call do not support the story of the call starting at the clubhouse front. In addition, Martin would have to be walking while in sight of Zimmerman but running just for the time that Zimmerman could not see him between the clubhouse and Twin Trees. Additionally, Martin would have had to arrive (walking slowly) at the clubhouse within seconds of Zimmerman (driving) for the times to work. There are also problems in making the Walk Through description of Martin disappearing and then reappearing at the T-junction fit the timed narration from the call.
On top of that, if any credence is to be given to Dee Dee's description of Martin saying the he was sheltering in a 'mailbox place' then this is impossible if we accept Zimmerman's walk-through narrative because Martin would have had to run from the Clubhouse to the East end of Twin Trees - and on a track that missed the mailboxes.

But then..... along comes an elephant.

Some brave souls have gone to the trouble of doing some very detailed analysis of the collection of CCTV records from the clubhouse.
Watching some of the Zimmerman police interview videos can be like watching paint dry. Watching the CCTV is like watching a movie about watching paint dry.


The images are not the highest quality and are timelapsed at about a second.
The analysis indicates that Zimmerman never parked at the front of the Clubhouse as he says in the Walk Through. It indicates movements of Zimmermans truck along Retreat View Circle, past the clubhouse and back - stopping at the mailboxes - - and then...........
.... driving into Twin Trees, making a U-turn and parking to face the clubhouse
....... exactly as Frank Taaffe had previously described Zimmerman telling him back in February.
Whatever about the analysis of lights detected on Retreat View Circle, the pool area video seems clear on a vehicle entering Twin Trees and making a U-turn at a time matching the beginning of Zimmerman's call. If this can be proven to be Zimmerman by elimination of other vehicles, it's very damaging to Zimmerman's story.

This would mean that my Maps page - that I thought had become redundant if we accepted the Walk Through - again becomes spot on -- so I'd better update it to retract the retraction :) 

The analysis is described and linked in a bcclist.com comment:
http://bcclist.com/2012/06/22/george-zimmerman-video-reenactment-lies-and-interview-discrepancies/#comment-18584

The meat of that is:
tchoupi.caillou Says:

I’ve completed the analysis of the clubhouse videos.
My figures are there: http://imgur.com/a/bcAII.
The main points are:
1) No vehicle stopped at the front of the clubhouse. This is a major contradiction of GZ’s statement.
2) There is a small traffic increase in front of the clubhouse between 7:06 & 7:09. The second vehicle seen during that 2min period looks like GZ’s Honda Ridgeline and it goes toward the north entrance. This would be 3min earlier than what he stated and reenacted.
3) At 7:08 a vehicle stops for 10sec by the mailboxes then proceeds toward the back entrance. It makes a U turn on TTL and stops facing west shining the pool with its headlights at about 7:09. This can only be GZ and it is another discrepancy with GZ’s reenactment/statement.
It looks like GZ drove around the gated community for about 2min passing by the clubhouse 5x before stopping at the mailboxes for 10sec and finally parking further east after a U-turn so that he could face the mailboxes right before calling SPD.
The videos are in fact very important as they prove that GZ observed TM for 3 minutes before calling SPD. Even if this is a much shorter time than what I was stating in my previous posts (up to 25min), it still remain a fact that George Zimmerman started stalking Trayvon Martin before calling 911. By stopping 10sec by the mailboxes where Trayvon was, George Zimmerman becomes the one who started the confrontation about 8min before the scuffle.

That bit highlighed above is very interesting
"At 7:08 a vehicle stops for 10sec by the mailboxes then proceeds toward the back entrance. It makes a U turn on TTL and stops facing west shining the pool with its headlights at about 7:09"
There is no record of any other vehicle moving  in Twin Trees at the time. Zimmerman certainly doesn't mention one on the call or in any statements. No witness has come forward or been traced as being that vehicle,
The NEN call connected at 7:09:11
It could well have happened as Frank Taaffe says Zimmerman told him:
Zimmerman in his truck in Twin Trees, parked facing the clubhouse. He calls the NEN. Martin approaches (on his route home) from the direction of the clubhouse. This would explain why we don't hear anything on the NEN call that would be Zimmerman reversing out from the front of the Clubhouse and driving into Twin Trees.

Frank Taaffe claimed that Zimmerman described Martin approaching the truck parked in Twin Trees from the clubhouse direction (i.e. from the mailboxes).
DeeDee describes Martin as sheltering in the mailbox structure.
The problem for Zimmerman's Walk-Through account is that the times logged in the NEN call do not allow for Martin to even pass through the mailboxes , nevermind even pause there briefly.

Why on earth would Zimmerman in the Walk-Through claim that he began the NEN at the front of the Clubhouse? My guess is that he is talking up his invention of the dispatcher pressing him to get to a place where he can see "the suspect". He claims that these demands from the dispatcher happened twice. First when Martin walks past him a the Clubhouse - and second when Martin went down the central path.

It's insane. He seems oblivious to the fact that the NEN is recorded and timed -- and that it includes all the background sounds.

Elephant.4


Amy L. Siewert is a Crime Laboratory Analyst employed by the Florida Department of Law Enforcement Crime Laboratory. She examined TM’s Fruit of the Loom dark gray hooded sweatshirt (Exhibit ME 12) and the light gray Nike sweatshirt (Exhibit ME 8) that he was wearing underneath the hoodie when GZ shot and killed him
The forensics reports gives the bald technical details. A blog post  puts an interpretation on those.
In short, the shot appears to have taken place while the material of Martin's sweatshirts was being pulled away from his body (as in some hand pulling him by his shirt).
This does not appear to match Zimmerman's account of the struggle.


Elephant.Elephant

The big bull elephant in all of this is the recording of Zimmerman's call.
Anything that Zimmerman claims and which conflicts with what we hear, and the time at which we hear it, is bogus. It's either an outright lie or very bad recall.

Instance:
Right from the start of the Walk Through and throughout, Zimmerman asserts that the dispatcher is pressing him for information on Martin's whereabouts and asking Zimmerman to get to a position from which he can see Martin.
He asserts that he got out of the truck purely in response to demands for information on Martin's movements and location.
This is fantasy. It never happened. The call recording clearly shows that.

Instance:
At the end of the Walk Through, Zimmerman asserts that the call ended with himself suggesting that the patrol car meet him at his truck. He asserts that he immediately began walking back to his truck.
The call recording shows that it was the dispatcher's suggestion that they meet at the truck. It shows that Zimmerman agreed but at the last moment changed that  to the patrol ringing him to find out where he was.


And then, there is the matter of 2 minutes and 30 seconds before the first 911 call comes in.
Even as late as the Hannity interview, Zimmerman seems to be sticking to his story of immediately starting back to his truck from Retreat View Circle after the call ends. He says that Martin accosted him less than 30 seconds later.
The elephant is that this means that Martin had been beating him for 2 minutes when that call connected, and continued to beat him for a further 42 seconds until the shot ended it.

He thinks that Martin punched him over a dozen times. So let's make that 20 punches -  in 2 minutes 40 seconds. Would 20 punches not do more damage than the minor injuries he ended up with ?
But wait! 20 punches over that time would average only one punch every 8 seconds.
It would have to be at least 40 punches.
One good solid punch can stun someone for about 4 seconds. So one good punch every 4 seconds would keep Zimmerman stunned and not well able to defend himself for the 2 minutes 42 seconds.
How bruised would his face be after at least 40 solid punches?
That 40 would be a minimum number of punches - as they would come only one every 4 seconds.
So if Martin is raining punches, make that at least 80 punches - one every 2 seconds - which still seems a bit leisurely.
So why is Zimmerman not a bloody pulp at the end of it? Why has Martin only got a scratch on one finger?

There's something else about this 2 minutes and 42 seconds of beating - that Zimmermans "less than 30 seconds before Martin attacks" story necessitates.
Let's say that 20 seconds elapsed between the 911 caller noticing the sounds of a loud argument less than 20 feet from her open back porch door - and her call connecting.
She would have noticed those sounds only after Martin had been beating Zimmerman for 1 minute and 40 seconds. During that 1 minute and 40 seconds, Zimmerman would not have been calling for help. Neither of them would have raised their voices. They would have been fighting for all that time before they became noisy.
C'mon!

Does this long and mostly silent beating sound ridiculous?
Yes it does.
It can't have happened. Can it?
No it can't. - but if Zimmerman is telling the truth about walking for his truck straight after the call, it had to have happened. So he's lying. Either that or he doesn't really remember that he went searching for Martin - which would imply that he can't possibly remember exactly what happened when he eventually found him after about 2 minutes of searching. Or - he's doesn't want to remember/tell.

So does this mean that the fight almost certainly broke out about 2 minutes and 10 seconds after Zimmerman's call ended? - rather than "less than 30 seconds"?
Yes it does.

So what does this mean for Zimmerman's story of heading straight back to his truck - a walk to the truck that would have taken no more than 1 minute?  - and a walk of about 20 seconds to the point at which he says he was attacked?
It mean that there is an elephant in the room.


Elephants Wrestling

Looking at that last Elephant, it could be that it is actually bigger than it seemed at first - that or it's actually two elephants wrestling.
Listen to   Part.3 of Interview by Serino on February 29
This is where they took Zimmerman through the recording of his NEN call and asked him to explain the timing and content.
This has Zimmerman saying that he was at Retreat View Circle and had started back to his truck 1 minute and 20 seconds before the call ended.
That would add a further 80 seconds to the incredibly long beating above.

That's not really possible, but Zimmerman is unable to comprehend that. He's totally fixated on denial that he did anything like following or searching for Martin. He simply has not thought of the implications of the story that he is clearly inventing.




Baby Elephants

The timestamps on calls can't be explained away. They are real elephants.

The words used in the calls can be explained away - so long as the speaker can keep a straight face and do it consistently. So these could be classed as baby elephants.

So
"Are you following him?"
"Yeah"
Means "Going in the same direction"

So
"He's running", "He ran"
Means "Faster than a normal walk. Sort of skipping"

See the Hannity Interview  page for an explanation of why the defence team, as late as July 2012 feel that they can run with elephants.
They don't intend to put Zimmerman on the stand - ever.



What is the sound of one elephant remembering?



Question:
What is the difference between Zimmerman and an Elephant?

An Elephant never forgets.
Zimmerman forgets - unless somebody straddles him, beats his head on the ground and punches him.
These bits he remembers clearly. Anything happening before that, when he is safe in his truck or observing is a complete blur.

Zimmerman would probably be great as a journalist embedded with troops in the most dangerous firefights of the Middle East. He's great at remembering that sort of stuff. Just don't ask him how he got there. He won't have a clue.












12 comments:

  1. Excellent work, sling.

    Elephant 1: Let's take GZ at his word that he went thru to RVC but instead of heading back to his truck which doesn't work out for the timeline, he turned right down RVC toward the back entrance, at some point turning right toward the path, either between the houses or near the gate. One witness described one or two people running toward the T.

    Elephant 2: We thought we had a place where GZ was when the call started, at the clubhouse, but now, with the clubhouse videos, we know that didn't happen. We now don't know where GZ was when the call was initiated, but we have a better idea of the path of his truck which is scary for TM.

    Elephant 3: This explains how the autopsy says "intermediate" range and the clothing says "contact".

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  2. Elephant 1 comment above: GZ thought that TM was headed for the back entrance. By going down RVC, he may have thought he could cut him off and capture one who wasn't going to get away.

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  3. Elephant.Elephant: Let's not forget that Trayvon was on the phone with DeeDee until @ 1 min before the gunshot.

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  4. that was very well done

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  5. A defense lawyer who is not blind to the elephants has been blogging about the case for a while and I just discovered him here:

    http://frederickleatherman.wordpress.com/2012/08/14/zimmerman-the-power-of-circumstantial-evidence/#comment-10256

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  6. Hello Mr Trebuchet,

    As i wrote somewhere else, i believe three relatively logically independent statements from GZ form the core of the case regarding the eventual trial.

    – TM surprised me at the intersection of the sidewalk
    – TM pronounced dead threats and actually tried to kill me
    – I was under TM when i shot

    My belief is GZ will be found guilty IF AND ONLY IF the prosecutors can persuade the jury that at least two of the three are false. The second degree murder will apply only if the last is false.

    Of course, the statements are not totally independent. For example, the second one is likely to be false if the first is false. But the the first can for well be true and the second false. So there is correlation between but not a complete one. An another hand the last one is fairly independent from the two first.

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    1. The first is a factual matter, and speaks to his memory/credibility. As there were no eyewitnesses, only physical/forensics might disprove it.
      The second is part factual and part subjective. Nobody heard words. Nobody now reports other than wrestling. If Martin was indeed trying to kill Zimmerman, then he wasn't doing very well at it - going by Zimmerman's very superficial injuries.

      The third is very serious for him if ballistics contradict his description of a desperate shot straight into Martin's chest when they are in the relative postures that he describes.

      The defence will want to exclude everything from consideration bar the last seconds of the fight. Everything bar an assertion that Martin attacked (for no other reason than sheer thuggery).

      Anything that casts doubt on Zimmerman;s story of how it ended would be fatal for them.

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  7. There's a baby elephant in the shape of Z's description of what happened AFTER the shooting.

    Z says he doesn't know if he pushed Trayvon off him, or if he fell away, but he remembers that he jumped straight onto his back(despite admitting he wasn't sure he'd shot TM. Yeah George, like you could have missed at that range and when you are holding onto your target.) to remove any weapons he might have had. Yes, that's right, Z had been getting the shit beat out of him by Trayvon for at least a minute and he hadn't even noticed if he had a weapon in one of the hands he'd been getting smothered or pummelled with.

    So, he's on Trayvon's back RIGHT AFTER the gunshot near enough and he says he was in that position when the first person arrived on the scene, and almost immediately after he arrived, the first cop arrived.

    But that witness says that never happened. He says it was at least a minute after the gunshot that he walked around the corner and saw Z seemingly talking on the phone to somebody over on the footpath. We know that somebody is unlikely to have been SheLIE, because he later had to insist on her being called to be told he had shot someone, so, who was Z phoning and isn't this remarkably considered behaviour for someone who moments before was supposedly being beaten almost to the point of unconsciousness and who has just killed somebody?

    This is the same witness who took Z's photo of his head wound(Z seemed to be very interested in seeing what the damage looked like at some point), and who seems to have a very casual approach to people being shot in his neighbourhood. Seriously, would you have gone outside knowing someone had just been shot and you're not supposed to know who is out there?

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    1. Actually, I've seen this happen. I was in a gunfight in Denver in an enclosed courtyard. Both of us unloading at each other and it was REALLY loud in that courtyard. What struck me strangely was that people were all coming out of their apartments to see what was going on. I was screaming at people to get back in their apartments because we're shooting!

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  8. Zimmerman claims to have a horrible memory, but when speaking with the female officer while being detained, he can recall exactly what she was doing, how she held her gun, when she holstered her gun. People that just shot someone and having their bell run to that extent wouldn't be able to recall such detail.

    I've had both my bell rung pretty badly and have also been in a real gunfight. Having the police on the scene within 5 minutes and asking me questions, it was hard to remember, all the detail, let alone having to remember AND having your head pounded with cement, then couple that with his "horrible memory." But here he is, talking VERY casually and with exacting memory.

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  9. Thank you for this analysis. Very powerful everyone.

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